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With most commodity prices dropping ( World Bank, 2020),ĭeveloping countries are expected to be particularly affected and to see an increaseĢ020). The global economy is already experiencing substantialĬontractions as a result of Covid-19. Instead, it is also possible that the virus is fuelling armed conflict in currently It remains unclear whether a reduction in violence is actually occurring. Such a decrease in fighting would clearly facilitate efforts to tackle the pandemic, Some analysts argue that Covid-19 may lead to a ‘Pax Epidemica’ even withoutĬeasefires as it decreases states’ military capabilities and optimism to fight Some of them were broken shortly after being announced ( Rustad et al., 2020). However, the number of such ceasefires has remained limited and Nations have been emphasizing the need to cede fighting, and it makes theĪnnouncement of ceasefires in, for example, the Philippines, Libya and Colombia, a The spread of Covid-19 and be a key barrier to halting it. Continued armed conflict thus has the potential to fuel Public health outcomes, including the prevalence of infectious diseases ( Bundervoet et al., 2009 Has decreased in the wake of the first reported cases, governmental lockdowns haveĮxisting studies document substantial and long-lasting effects of armed conflict on Of the pandemic on armed conflict while fighting in the Caucasus and Southeast Asia Our results indicate a global null effect Governmental responses, and battle events. Short-term effect of Covid-19 on armed conflict within a difference-in-differenceįramework, leveraging temporarily fine-grained data on the spread of Covid-19, The pandemic may trigger and fuel fighting due to its negative economic consequencesĪnd the windows of opportunity it offers to opposition movements. Hinder efforts to fight coronavirus and thus act as a catalyser. Precious windows for diplomacy’, and thus facilitate stopping the spread of Covid-19Īmong vulnerable populations in war-torn countries (cited in UN, 2020). On 23 March 2020, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres,Ĭalled for a global ceasefire to ‘create corridors for life-saving aid open